EB-2 NIW Approval Rates Rising in 2026: USCIS Adjudication Data Shows Recovery

According to data compiled by Lawfully from hundreds of real-time EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW) case outcomes, approval rates appear to be on an upward trend heading into 2026 after reaching a notable low point in September 2025. The data provides rare visibility into how USCIS is currently adjudicating NIW petitions at scale. The recovery in approval rates suggests USCIS adjudicators may be applying a more consistent or favorable standard compared to the September dip. While the exact causes of that earlier decline are not detailed, fluctuations in approval rates often reflect shifts in officer guidance, staffing, or evolving interpretation of the NIW standard established under Matter of Dhanasar. For 2026 petitions, the data underscores a continuing requirement: applicants must clearly articulate why their work is of such national importance that waiting for a labor certification process is not in the national interest. This "urgency" prong remains a key differentiator between strong and borderline NIW petitions. Although this analysis focuses on EB-2 NIW rather than EB-3, the adjudication trends at USCIS are broadly relevant to all employment-based applicants. Shifts in processing posture, officer discretion, and evidentiary standards at one preference category often signal broader operational patterns within USCIS service centers.